Posted tagged ‘Budget Deficit’

THE RUSE OF BLAMING IDEOLOGY

July 31, 2011

Last Monday the President of the United States blamed the debt ceiling impasse on the so-called Tea Party Caucus in the House of Representatives. Said Mr. Obama in his nationwide prime time televised address, they can be compared to a scattering of others before them who “held fast to rigid ideologies and who refused to listen to those who disagreed.” Here’s the segment of Mr. Obama’s address from which this quote was taken.

The Tea Party members, for their part, seem to be refusing to go along with a debt limit increase when the quid pro quo is Mr. Obama’s promise that there will be cuts, trust me. The Tea Party apparently asks for promised cuts and also Congressional approval of a balanced budget constitutional amendment which does not become law until it is adopted by 3/4 of the states.

In the view of the President, the rigid ones, the Tea Partyers, won’t be remembered for their ideological stand for less debt or a balanced budget amendment. Instead, according to Mr. Obama, the ones we should and do remember are those, supposedly like him I guess, who “put country above self . . . .” and who “. . . set personal grievances aside for the greater good.” This is nonsensical. The Tea Party has no animosity towards anyone. Most of the Tea Partyers are not even interested in being re-elected if they don’t achieve this goal. They want to balance the books. Plain and simple, their goal is to put this country on track to live within it’s means.

The public is apparently mad at the Tea Party. The public is, according to the polls, clamoring for a “compromise” which I think means simply that they want to go back to life as usual. Stop messing with the credit markets. A plague on both your houses. Stop threatening us with fewer benefits or more taxes. Just stop, stop, stop.

The people calling for compromise now are the same ones as those who called for compromise when Bill Clinton faced down a Republican Congress back in 1995. Clinton faced a Congress which wanted a significant change in the business of government as usual. This Congress, the first Republican Congress in 40 years, passed budgets with significantly lower budget deficits and no tax cuts. President Clinton, however, vetoed several of the budgets they passed and shut down the government before the Congress gave him what he liked. The ones we remember, President Obama says, are those who set aside pride and party to “form a more perfect union.” Mr. Clinton is, however, now widely revered and Mr. Gingrich, the leader of that Congress, is still largely reviled.

If the current situation is a replay of 1995 the Tea Party insurgents are playing the role of the fiscally conservative Republicans who came to Washington to cut the budget that year. The 1995 insurgents were pilloried in the press as being too extreme and in seeking to balance the budget on the backs of the poor. They just wanted to cut too much. Mr. Clinton shut down the government rather than give in to the Republican congress. In 1995 the people called for compromise, they just wanted to be left alone. And they got it and 16 years later we’re much worse off than we were then.

I think that President Clinton beat the 1995 Congress because we the people knew that the Congress was calling for something like austerity. Something like a balanced budget. Something which would change our cushy lives. We the people have reached the same point today only the Congress is divided. And the Tea Party holds a significant power base in only one chamber. We the people, however, want to go back to what we had before. We don’t want to be bothered by budget cuts and other revenue enhancements.

In 2011 when we answer our phones to talk to pollsters we say we want compromise. We act superior and tell them that we just want the politicians to act like adults!!! But we know, in our hearts, that what we really want is just business as usual. We’re happy to shoot the messenger. We wish to eat drink and be merry for tomorrow we may die!!! In the present case, as it was in 1995, the money we are spending will be paid back, after we die, by our children and grandchildren. We don’t want to cut the budget today or over the next eight years or ever for that matter. We avoid this because it will hurt. That is the bottom line. We the People aren’t really weary of the ‘ideological warfare’ between spenders and savers, we just don’t want to cut up the credit card just yet. We erroneously thought that we were willing to cut up the card when we elected fiscally concerned members in November of 1994 as well as in November of 2010. Now, when it comes to the pointy end of the spear or the sharp edge of the budget axe, we really just prefer not to change.

Unfortunately, either a minority like the Tea Party is going to need to hang tough and make us fix this although they’ll be acting in a throroughly undemocratic way. Or alternatively things will change when someone comes from the outside, like the rating agencies, and forces us to change. But we won’t believe that they will do it until they do do it. Until then we will continue to believe that we can be rich by collecting the printed dollar bills dropped from airplanes and helicopters. In fact if gold itself, all of a sudden, became as commonplace as paper, we couldn’t get rich by picking that up off the ground either. We will only stop when we have no ability to fool ourselves and stop looking to others to pay our bills. This, I think, is the meaning of what the rating agencies are telling us. They, the agencies, are just losing confidence in our willingness to be grown ups, and by that I mean somebody willing to cut back on their current expenses in order to pay the debts they incurred for goods and services previously provided. In the end we’ll get what we deserve unless we decide to support this strange ideology which believes that we need to pay our own bills now and stop putting the hard things off.

HEAD’S UP IN THE UPCOMING DEBATE OVER FUNDING SOCIAL SECURITY

March 13, 2011

Remember when President Obama, last week, said in a press conference that in the middle of the decade his budget would have us to a point where we would no longer be adding to the deficit? Halleleujah!! Unfortunately, it is indisputable that the Obama budget never once comes close to matching income and outflow. The following is how the President’s new press secretary explained it, and did it without backing down an inch from what the President said:

This is an example of avoiding a plain mathematical truth through application of obfuscation and is just plain tomfoolery. It is true that:

In war, truth is the first casualty. Aeschylus Greek tragic dramatist (525 BC – 456 BC) .

But our politicians, for purposes other than war, have seemed to take this adage and placed it at the service of their intramural debates and elections. This is not a difference of worldviews, a topic often explored by this blog, with it’s attendant differences in context, language and emphasis created by differing worldviews. This is an example of a simple lack of candor. In no one’s world should this be okay. This is not an issue of context, of language or emphasis. It is just not true.

This also gives us a little taste of how we’ll be treated in the upcoming social security debates. An example of this was delivered by a group of Democrat Senators about 30 days ago. These Senators explained that the Republicans are in favor of ‘privatizing’ social security and that social security can pay every dollar of benefits for the next 27 years and that social security is actuarially sound among other important things.

I am unsure whether there have been any post-Bush Republican proposals for “privatizing” social security but I am certain that there is a big problem with calling social security “actuarially sound” and explaining that it has the resources to pay benefits for 27 years without any changes without further explanation. It is a bit like the President’s news conference when he suggested that in 2015 his budget will be balanced and his press secretary had to spin and spin the point until he was dry.

What is the truth? The truth is that in 2011 current social security benefits will exceed current social security taxes. How can it be that social security is “actuarially sound” or able to pay every penny of benefits for the next 27 years without any changes and yet social security has now started to pay out more in benefits than it receives in taxes? Are the Republicans ginning up lies? Are the Democrats now having to courageously put a stop it?

Well, the truth is that the social security system will need to call on non-social security tax revenues in order to pay the difference between current social security benefits and current social security taxes for the foreseeable future. It is a fact that this began in FY 2010. There is no end in sight. Since this is undeniably true, what do the Democrat Senators mean by saying that social security can pay every penny of benefits for the next 27 years? These Senators are only saying that the general tax revenues which are going to have pay the social security benefits will not be used to do so directly, they are saying that something else will happen between cup and lip. What will happen, however, is only on the books of the Social Security Administration. The government’s general revenues will, instead, be used to pay off some of the IOU’s which have been piling up in the SSA for 27 years. The general revenue funds which have redeemed the IOU’s will then be used to pay current social security benefits. In this way there will be two stops for these dollars, not one. The dollars will change status from general revenues to the proceeds from paying off the IOU’s. The net effect will be nothing, zero.

Do you remember the old pragmatic-sounding “pay as you go” Unified government budgets which began in 1983. Under the Unified budget social security taxes were used to pay-as-you-go for non-social security government programs. The surplus between social security outlays and expenditures in those years was used to make the federal budget deficit look smaller or the budget surplus look larger, including during the years of Mr. Clinton’s magic “budget surpluses” of FY 1998, 99 and 2000. See the chart below for a graphic example of what was going on.

For instance, as the chart shows, in FY 2000 approximately $200 billion was added to the trust fund as a result of this social security surplus. The accumulated surplus is what the Democratic Party’s Senators are actually talking about in terms of the “solvency” and “actuarial soundness” of the program. The existence of these IOU’s will not lessen the difficulty and the reality of coming up with the difference between the social security taxes and the social security benefits to pay retirees on an ongoing year to year basis.
This is a fact that everyone needs to know so that when politicians deny that social security amounts to a fiscal problem at the present time, you’ll know that they are trying to tell you something about accounting, not about reality. Because the general tax revenues will first be used to pay off the IOU’s which the SSA has been accumulating in it’s filing cabinets before being used to pay benefits doesn’t make a hill of beans to the painful reality that somebody will have to pay the bill.

Oh and by the way, as to the partisan politics of this. Control of Congress has been split almost evenly during the period since FY 1984 between Democrat and Republican. The presidency a bit more Republican at 16 years to 10. It should also be noted that during the legendary Clinton “budget surpluses” the Congress was Republican. In short, this not a partisan problem (notwithstanding the rather duplicitous grandstanding and fear-mongering by the Democratic Senators featured above) it’s a government problem. The only reason that the Social Security system didn’t collapse in the 1980’s, after nearly 40 years of Congressional control by the Democrats, the party whose Senators are now yoohooing about how the Republicans are all for putting granny out on the street, was because the government used it’s power to raise taxes not because it used it’s head to properly administer the taxes it had to fund the social security entitlement it had created!!!!!!